With wheat prices higher than usual, southwestern Saskatchewan farmers may be looking at planting more of the cereal.
A review using long-term data by the Semiarid Prairie Agricultural Centre in Swift Current has come up with a means to help farmers make that decision.
Based on stored soil moisture and inches of expected rain, yields can be predicted.
Once the formula determines estimated yields, the farmers can determine the break-even wheat price they need.
The centre estimates cash costs of $112 an acre and total costs of $155 an acre.
At $6 for wheat, the break even yield to recover cash costs is 18.7 bushels an acre, with 12.4 bushels at $9 a bushel.
Larger amounts of stored water reduce the amount of growing season rainfall needed to break even.
With six inches of soil moisture, the farmer needs 8.2 inches of growing season rainfall to break even at $6 wheat.
At $9 per bushel, the soil needs 5.9 inches of growing season rainfall to break even with total costs.
The report notes the probability of 8.2 inches of growing season rainfall is about once in four years.
In the dry brown soil zone, covering most of the southwest, growing season rainfall will average three inches 75 per cent of the time, 5.6 inches half the time and 7.4 inches one-quarter of the time.
For more information contact the centre at SPARC@agr.gc.ca or phone 306-778-7200.
Ron Walter can be reached at 691-1264.
Centre predicting wheat yields
-
- Published on Febuary 15th, 2008
- Published on July 10th, 2009
-
Ron Walter
With wheat prices higher than usual, southwestern Saskatchewan farmers may be looking at planting more of the cereal.
- Number of views : 419
- Rate
- Top of the page
