Less than ideal temperatures across Western Canada have caused crop development to slow.
During the 2009 Canadian Wheat Board weather and crop briefing Thursday afternoon, Bruce Burnett, Canadian Wheat Board director of weather and market analysis, said crop development across the Prairies is about 10 days to two weeks behind schedule, due to colder weather.
He said the board's preliminary forecasts are projecting that Western Canadian wheat, durum and barley crops are going to be down by almost 20 per cent.
In 2008, the three crops came in at 36.7 million tonnes, in 2009 the Canadian Wheat Board forecast is 29.7 million tonnes, which is also much lower than the five-year average of 33.9 million tonnes.
Burnett, who was speaking via a teleconference, also indicated that the all-wheat yield, estimated at 33.4 bushels per acre is the lowest opening projection in seven years.
He said the drop in numbers is due to the colder weather seen this winter and spring across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Burnett said because of the less-than favourable conditions, there is a considerable risk to the quality and quantity of the 2009 crop.
He said the cause of all the weather issues being experienced recently is due to a strong anomaly occurring over the centre of the Hudson Bay.
In terms of when the anomaly will stop, Burnett said there isn't a really good way to know on a long term basis, however, he is sure things will warm up - the question is just when?
Due to drier conditions experienced during the month of May in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Burnett said the slower planting pace, seen during the beginning of the month is no longer an issue.
He said the two provinces were moving at a close-to-normal pace, however, progress across Western Canada was still behind by one week.
The problem with that, he said is the possibility of an early frost in the fall, resulting in a poorer quality crop or the loss of product.
According to Burnett and the Canadian Wheat Board, the hardship felt throughout the Prairies continues down across the border and around the world.
He said due to a significant drop in the production of U.S. winter wheat and extreme dry conditions in Argentina, the world wheat crop will be down significantly from last year's recorded record of 682 million tonnes.
Burnett noted that the United States Department of Agriculture forecast this week a world wheat production of 656 million tonnes.
He said if that number were to see anymore cuts at a global level, it could result in tighter world supplies, which would then be reflected in prices.
If conditions don't improve in the near future, Burnett said the concern in regards to crop development will become much more serious.
Lyndsay McCready can be reached at 691-1256.
