EDMONTON -
A new study suggests resource industries in Western Canada will face more violence, sabotage and blockades by people who see the oilsands and pipelines as a threat to the environment or Aboriginal rights.
But such cases will probably be isolated and unco-ordinated and will cause only nuisance damage, says the report by Tom Flanagan for the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute.
"The most likely scenario is a continuation of isolated and unco-ordinated obstructive activities, both violent and non-violent, which may occasionally slow down or hold up particular projects, but which will probably not threaten the ability of resource industries to continue operations," Flanagan wrote in his report released Monday.
Flanagan, a University of Calgary political science professor, said he focused mainly on northern Alberta, but his findings also apply to parts of British Columbia and Saskatchewan.
The report's release comes as RCMP investigate a series of bombings that have targeted EnCana Corp. natural gas operations near Dawson Creek in northeastern B.C. An anti-terrorism unit is probing six explosions since last October.
No one has been injured, but the blasts have caused fear in area residents. No individual or group has claimed responsibility.
Tens of thousands of kilometres of pipelines and resource roads criss-cross the region. The remote landscape, much of it heavily forested, is dotted with countless energy wells and pumping stations.
Flanagan's study identifies five potential groups that have or may oppose resource development, including saboteurs, eco-terrorists, mainstream environmentalists, First Nations and Metis people.
If two or more of these groups joined together in a single movement, they would become a much more serious obstacle to development, but that is unlikely to happen because of significant differences in what they believe in and how they operate, the report says.
It goes on to say that saboteurs operating alone or in a small group are most likely to take action, but pose the lowest risk of disrupting projects because of the small scale of what they can accomplish.
Eco-terrorists pose a low threat and have no history of operating outside major cities, the report suggests. Few mainstream environmentalists live in the remote region.
