Professor says global warming effects are years away

Global climate warming is not quite the doom and gloom scenario some people believe, according to a Saskatchewan climate professor who worked on a recent global climate change panel report.
The Prairies have 30 to 40 years to adapt to climate change, Dr. Dave Sauchyn of the University of Regina told an irrigation conference in Moose Jaw Monday.
No one is in a better position to adapt to global warming than farmers, he said. Farmers have adapted to climate change by soil and water conservation and cropping practices, he said.
Although some farmers are skeptical of global warming " they are hedging their bets by adapting."
As an example of adapting, wheat yields since the 1950s are no longer as volatile as they once were but "we still get walloped by drought."
Irrigation is the major adaptation of dry climates, he said, noting that 1,000 years of tree ring research indicates drier times lie ahead.
Those dry periods will come even without the impact of global warming.
In general, the Prairies will experience shorter, warmer, dryer winters by 2050 with warmer, drier, summers and autumns,
April, May and June rains may be two to three times current levels.
Lower snowfall means water supply will be more difficult to manage, Sauchyn said.
Years of extreme heat or moisture will be more frequent in the future, he said.
The drought of the 1930s was matched by 10 similar droughts since 1200. Many of those droughts lasted up to 25 years.
Fur trappers' journals in the 1700s, during an extended drought, mention the mighty North Saskatchewan River had no water.
"The latter part of the 20th century, in fact, was a relatively stable era. It was much less stable before and certainly is going to be much less stable in the future," Sauchyn said.
"We have to shed this idea that we live in a country that has excess water."
He is optimistic the Prairies can adapt to both long-term climate cycles and global warming. Global warming is a steady global temperature increase since the 1960s caused by human industrial activity.
With the Prairies so resource rich "we have tonnes of capacity to adapt."
Politicians have a hard time deciding where to begin, he said, expressing optimism that political leaders will take action.
"They can't afford to be wrong" in 20 or 30 years.
Political leaders need the best science, Sauchyn said.
Media are the only ones giving credibility to critics of global warming, he said.
Certainly, scientific publications with peer reviews do not give the critics any credence.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Global Warming report issued this year with contributions by more than 3,000 scientists, six years research and 130 countries support is the best science, he said
Sauchyn said that while Al Gore had the correct science in his movie and lectures, "he did stretch a few things."

Ron Walter can be reached at 691-1264.