There's less than a week to go before one of the most hotly-contested U.S. presidential races in history wraps up.
And it looks like instead of going out with an exciting, nail-biting bang, as the last two elections did, this one may end with more of a definitive whimper.
Since the last two elections were so close, Republican John McCain didn't really have much wiggle room from what was left him by his GOP predecessor, President George W. Bush.
In 2004, Bush won with 286 electoral college votes. Since there are only 538 in total and 270 are needed to win, McCain can only stand to lose states equalling 16 votes, unless he gains any of the statest Democrat John Kerry won four years ago. (The number of electoral votes is based on combining the number of representatives each state has with the number of senators. Since every state has two senators and at least one representative, the fewest number of electoral votes a state can have is three).
While it had been McCain's hope to pick up some Democratic states, polls over the last month have shown that he should be more worried about holding onto all the states Bush won.
In 2004, Kerry won six states by less than five per cent of the vote. However, of these six states - Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota and Oregon - Democratic candidate Barack Obama has a lead of more than 10 per cent in all but Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In those two states, he's leading by around eight per cent.
With less than a week to go, that's too much for McCain to overcome.
So, he's going to have to worry about ensuring those states Bush won don't turn blue on him.
But polls show there are a number of states on the verge of sliding into Obama's hands, which would give him the White House - and he only really needs a couple to do it.
According to the polls, Obama has a five to 10 per cent lead in six states that supported George W. Bush in 2004. Those states - Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Virginia and Ohio - equal 59 electoral college votes, which would give Obama 311, enough for a solid victory over McCain.
That doesn't include the seven states where the two candidates' polling numbers are within the margin of error. These seven states - Missouri, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, North Dakota and Montana - equal 85 electoral college votes. That would be enough to give Obama a massive victory.
So, it doesn't look good for McCain as we head to Tuesday.
His only hope is to hold all seven of the second group of states and most of the of the first group. Otherwise, Obama will be making history on Tuesday.
Personally, I don't think Obama's going to take 396 electoral votes, which is what he would get by winning all 14 of the close states.
I just can't picture a Democrat winning some of those really close states, such as North Dakota, Montana and Georgia.
I think Obama will win all six states that went Republican in 2004 that he's leading by five to 10 per cent, plus Indiana, North Carolina and Florida.
Add those with the 19 holds from 2004 - Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, New York, California, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Vermont and Oregon - and Obama will win handily with 364 electoral college votes to 174 for McCain.
For my full predictions on the various U.S. elections, including the senate and the house, check mjtimes.sk.ca.
Obama will win U.S. election, it's a matter of by how much
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- Published on October 30th, 2008
- Published on July 10th, 2009
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Jason Small
Times-Herald
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- Lucien
- - September 18th, 2009 at 16:44:36
RE:
Obama will win U.S. election, it's a matter of by how much
JASON SMALL
The Moose Jaw Times Herald
---------------------------------
Montreal, CANADA, October 29, 2008
TO THE NEXT UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NEW PRESIDENT:
SIR:
MAY I CALL YOU O ?
Because of MAIN STREET !
Because of WALL STREET !
Because of the final electoral sprint - ending soon next coming november 2008 - while THE WHOLE PEOPLE OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA has its eyes on YOU.
Everyone expects You to be democratically elected and see that something happen in America.
In March 1983, one of humanity's most famous spokesmen, Pope John Paul II, came to our country - 'Haîti' - and loudly proclaimed what each and every one of us had been whispering:
Something must change here !
Today, more than ever, a lot of people of The United States of America stand up, longing for something and working to make something happen.
Go thou America ahead and show us thy true countenance in a positive light.' It is up to everyone to play his or her part in order to let thee regain thy mark of excellence !
With this letter, I am communicating with You, SIR, and with the whole people of The United States of America.
You offer this country what it takes to be a 'Wonderfull Land.' Yes, let us say 'with a great people living and working together.'
Go thou, America, go ahead, following in the footsteps of one of thy sons who is now becoming one of thy statesmen.
With this in mind, to whom else could I entrust this letter sent to his Holiness Pope John Paul II when he set foot on Haitian soil for the first time, as well as its acknowledgment by the Vatican?
That letter to Pope John Paul II is intended to draw attention to the problem posed by anti-Black discrimination and its negative repercussions on the advancement of scientific progress in the West, and more precisely in the realm of Optics.
In the Western world, according to Newton's widely accepted theory, white is considered to be the synthesis of all colors. Actually, the opposite is true. White constitutes the analysis or 'visible' decoding of light or color, whereas black is its synthesis or 'invisible' composition.
In other words, darkness or blackness and, we might add, Black Holes' - a scientific misnomer designating invisible stars or 'Black Suns' - are a source of energy and light. Scientifically, Industrially and Economically speaking, what an asset !
That basic raw material of light energy culminates, in its most radiant form, in the neutralization of all the colors of the spectrum in the form of usually called white light.
Therefore absolute blackness , the absorption of all the colors, is a divisible component of light. Needless to say, Newton's theory gives only a partial interpretation of the notion of light, by excluding black. Our contribution aims at demonstrating that the black color is not only an integral part of the color process, but its true synthesis. Light is therefore shown to be a divisible whole comprising an intensity or color scale in which black is the invisible or 'absorbed' form of the energy in question.
Allow me, SIR, in order to support my statement concerning Black Holes and radiation, to pose a question asked by Hubert Reeves, Doctor of nuclear astrophysics and Scientific Consultant to NASA:
What would have become of the Sun, if it were plunged into a high temperature radiance like the one that existed at the beginning of the Universe? [our translation]
Instead of emitting light, it would absorb it and, in the end, it would be completely reabsorbed into the cosmic fluid.
The cosmic fluid is what, due to an optical mistake , is called darkness or the blackness of Space . We are talking about the electromagnetic flux, that immeasurable ocean in which the planets and stars are bathed, like the sea which links all the continents together. Darkness is thus The Sea of Space.
What would have happened if, instead of an ordinary star like the White Sun , a Black Hole or Black Sun were injected into that primordial radiation?
According to Einsteinian Physics, a Black Hole is a place where gravity is so formidably intense that nothing can escape it, not even visible light. Such a hole should suck in and absorb radiation and increase its own mass: E=MC2, always.
But after Einstein came Bohr, Heisenberg, and Quantum Physic. From then on, nothing was the same as before.
The Einsteinian version of the Black Hole is equivalent to a statement that the matter inside the Black Hole is definitely there to stay, in that volume of space. Let us quote Hubert Reeves: Such an absolute statement is thus contrary to the Quantum spirit , affirming that nothing is definitely localized in one place. There is always a probability of escape. If the enclosing wall is too high, a tunnel will be dug; if the prisoners are patient, they will escape. One has only to wait. [our translation]
According to that principle, Black Holes evaporate . Matter constantly escapes as radiation. Black Holes shine! Their surfaces behave like those of any body heated to a certain temperature and that radiation endlessly feeds that marvelous Cosmic Fluid which, wrongly and in bad faith, people keep calling Darkness.
Nigra sum sed formosa!
Yes, but should we not say instead, I am black and comely?
Darkness, which is both source and vehicle of light, does not have to defend itself for being the beautiful and infinitely discreet raw material of the Universe. Darkness is the Mother of the Universe.
Also, beautiful and discreet art thou, Haiti. Discreet, yes, but never outshone! Just like the Black Virgin who inspires and sheds her love on thee from the hilltop and even beyond Cité Soleil (Sun City).
Our purpose was to offer a more constructive approach aiming at correcting the abusive traditional, so-called scientific, theories of Optics.
Its like to say that in the exceptional circumstances in which we live today - in the point of view of FINANCE and ENERGY - no exploration in the mid or long term, by the american expertise , of an additional source of energy, at the same time safe and economically profitable, should not be ruled out.
That is why, we wrote to that authentic witness to the signs of this age, His Holiness Pope John Paul II, the prophet of the new era.
Congratulations to You, Sir, and congratulations to the PEOPLE of The United States Of America - for having made it possible for this day of November to come - to mark the beginning of a New Era of Hope !
Lucien Bonnet
PLease, SEE :
LETTER TO POPE JOHN-PAUL II
in 'BILL A RI AND THERE WAS LIGHT !
http://www.contact-canadahaiti.ca
The author
of this book entitled
BILL A RI AND THERE WAS LIGHT ! :
O Movie Review
Review of the romantic drama, O, based on Shakespeare's Othello, starring Josh Hartnett, Julia Stiles, and Mekhi Phifer.
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