There's enough room for the Tories to eke out a majority

So, Stephen Harper has decided he wants to take a run at getting that seeming elusive brass ring - a majority government.
There is no doubt that by the time this weekend rolls around, there will officially be an election. The recent appearance of the Conservative TV campaign ads with a group of actors extolling Harper's virtues followed by him smiling, should have been the final clue that it is election time.
Since we're ready to head into an election, let's look at how Harper can win that much sought after majority, instead of just another minority.
Firstly, this is focusing on what the Conservative party needs to do to win a majority because I think it is the only one with any chance of winning the necessary 155 seats to garner a majority.
If Stephane Dion becomes prime minister of Canada later this year, it will only be as the head of a minority government.
The Liberal party just doesn't have the support, especially in the seat-rich province of Quebec, to be able to pull off a majority.
But there is a chance for Harper to get his majority. So where are those extra seats Harper needs to win a majority? Well, there's a lot of possibilities on the front.
Firstly, as we head into the election, Harper's Tories control 127 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons. That means, to win a majority, the Conservatives have to find an extra 28 seats across this country.
Before we can start looking at where these extra 28 seats might come from, we also have to consider that Harper has to worry about losing some of those existing 127 seats.
The problem in those existing seats is the fact that some MPs are not running again.
In some seats where an MP is not running again, the Tories shouldn't have a problem holding on. But other seats were not locks and the loss of an incumbent is going to be tough on the Conservatives.
One of the best examples of that is here in the riding of Palliser, where incumbent Dave Batters' departure leaves a riding the Tories first won by 170 votes in 2004, and then by 3,446 two years ago, open.
There is a chance the NDP could reclaim it with former Moose Jaw Mayor Don Mitchell. The Liberals are also making a strong push for it with former Regina police chief Cal Johnston.
Whether the Conservatives keep this seat will depend on who the party runs and how well it is doing nationally compared to the other parties.
There are also other ridings of concern. The two most obvious examples that jump out are on either end of the country - Vancouver Kingsway and St. John's South - Mount Pearl.
Kingsway was not won by the Tories. Former Liberal cabinet minister David Emerson delivered that seat when he left the Grits right after the election to remain in cabinet. Traditionally, the Conservatives have not done very well in that riding, so don't expect a hold there, especially now that Emerson is retiring.
As well, in St. John's, the unpopularity of Harper in Newfoundland and Labrador, coupled with the retirement of veteran MP Loyola Hearn, could mean a loss for the Tories there as well.
There are other possible losses for the Conservatives the party needs to watch out for, including Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, where Carol Skelton will not be running again for the Tories.
So, Harper may need to win more than just 28 new seats to get a majority. Where does he find them?
Not here or in Alberta.
The Conservatives already have all but one of the 42 seats in the two provinces and that is Regina-Wascana, which former Assiniboia-Gravelbourg MLA Ralph Goodale has a lock on for the Liberals.
There is definitely some room for pickup, however, in Manitoba and B.C.
There are six ridings the Tories could pick up in B.C. - three from the NDP and three from the Liberals. The Conservatives were close in all six in 2006.
There's two more opportunities in Manitoba, including the riding of veteran New Democrat Bill Blaikie who is retiring from politics.
In the Maritimes, there's really only four ridings the Tories could pick up - two in New Brunswick and two in Nova Scotia. Three of the ridings were close losses to the Liberals in 2006. The fourth, was won by a Conservative, Bill Casey, who was subsequently tossed out of caucus because he spoke out against the prime minister when it came to offshore resource revenue.
All three of the territorial ridings are a write-off for the Conservatives. The party doesn't have a chance in any of them.
That leaves Quebec and Ontario, where the real motherlodes lie for the Conservatives.
In Ontario, there are eight ridings the Tories have a strong chance of poaching, mostly from the Liberals.
Quebec, however, has the most to offer as there is a possibility of 13 more seats falling into Tories - 14 if right-wing Independent MP Andre Arthur chooses not to run again in his Quebec City riding. Some of these are the Liberal ridings but some are Bloc Quebecois.
This makes for a grand total of 34 seats (check my blog at mjtimes.sk.ca for a list of all 34 ridings) the Tories could pick up. That would be enough to score the magic number of 155 and have room to lose a little including Vancouver Kingsway, which appears to be a safe bet to lose.
However, there are quite a few ridings the Tories won by slim margins in 2006, so even if the party was to win all 34 of those seats, it could still come short of the majority.
This should be an exciting election as we head in not knowing who will survive, with so many close races across the country, including right here in Palliser.

Jason Small can be reached at 691-1255.