Ignatieff will likely hold off on toppling government

Moose Jaw - Well folks, dust off that crown because it looks like Liberal-land is getting ready for an honest-to-goodness coronation.
After Bob Rae read the writing on the wall and stopped clinging on to whatever hope he had left that the Liberal party would let a former NDP premier take the reins of the party, only his ex-roomie Michael Ignatieff was left standing in the race to decide who would fix the mess left by Stephane Dion.
It's funny that Rae and Ignatieff, who were roommates at the University of Toronto, have gone at each other hammer and tong for two straight leadership races. It makes you wonder, what did Ignatieff do back then to tick Rae off so much.
Did he steal his toothbrush? His booze? His girlfriend? Who knows, but Rae seemed to have it in for Ignatieff. But now, that is all over, at least in public.
And now the Liberals are set to make Ignatieff the head cheese before Jan. 26, when the House of Commons reconvenes.
This move is like an early Christmas present for one federal leader and a lump of coal for another.
For Prime Minister Stephen Harper, it must have been like running down to the tree on Christmas morning and unwrapping a brand new sweater vest - nothing but sheer joy.
Ignatieff's coronation is not such a joyous occasion for NDP Leader Jack Layton. For Layton, it's more like being so close to reaching the brass ring and just as you touch it, it turns into a lump of coal.
Ignatieff has been more than a little reticent about the coalition deal with Layton and Bloc boss Gilles Duceppe that was cooked up by outgoing Grit Leader Stephane Dion.
Ignatieff has indicated he wants to wait and see what Harper delivers in his budget that is supposed to come out on Jan. 27. Then he will decide whether to support it.
After the House was prorogued last week, Layton indicated there was nothing Harper could do to change his mind and that he was hell bent for leather to bring the Tories tumbling down.
This was a chance for the NDP to play a role in governing but Ignatieff's reticence indicates that chance may be gone. Plus, if Ignatieff revitalizes the Liberal party, that will suck away a lot of votes from Layton.
Unless the budget does absolutely nothing for the economy and Ignatieff finds it thoroughly repugnant, I think he will choose to prop up Harper's government. For him, it only makes sense.
He has more popularity than Dion. More people can picture him as a prime minister.
There is a realistic chance Ignatieff could, at some point, win a federal election. However, taking power via a coalition could backfire on him.
While it's possible he could get elected prime minister in a general election after leading a coalition government, there's just as strong a chance that people would still be unhappy about the coalition and give Harper the majority he so desperately wants.
Instead, it would be better for Ignatieff to let Harper rule while working to establish to the public that he is much better than Dion. He needs to draw people back into the Liberal fold from both the left and right sides of the spectrum.
He could work on building his popularity and once the Liberals looked strong enough, after at least a year to 18 months, then he could topple the Tories and more than likely win the keys to 24 Sussex Drive, possibly with a majority.
As opposed to pushing for power now, it would be wiser for Ignatieff to wait because he probably has a better shot a long-term power if he just shows a little patience.

Jason Small can be reached at 691-1255.