2009 could hold great political intrigue locally

The new year is here and in the political realm there are definitely some interesting events, including elections, slated for 2009.
The first situation is on the federal scene. There is a big question about whether Stephen Harper will still be prime minister at the end of this month.
Well, unless Michael Ignatieff is suddenly struck with a stunningly bad case of stupidity, Harper should still be the prime minister at the end of the month.
I also think there's a good chance Harper could still be the PM at the end of the year. However, if Harper decides to try another one of his my-way-or-the-highway stunts, and Ignatieff has had some time to get his feet wet, then the new Grit boss might be ready to hit the hustings and force an election.
The great Liberal-NDP coalition, however, will probably disintegrate before it gets anywhere near power.
While we'll not likely see any big shakeup in Ottawa in the next month, 2009 still has the potential to be a year filled with political intrigue on Parliament Hill.
Locally, the forecast also calls for high levels of political intrigue.
I'm curious as to how next month's multiplex referendum will shake out. There are several aspects to the matter that are of interest. I'm curious about how vigourous the two sides will campaign, if at all.
The date has been set for weeks but we've barely heard boo from either side publicly in terms of organized campaigning. Any money spent campaigning would have to come from the pockets of the supporters, so it's possible we may not see much campaigning at all.
And here's the other question - will anybody show up?
For the last referendum, there was a civic election going on at the same time, to draw people in to the vote. This time there will be considerably fewer voters and that may benefit the no side, since their supporters seem to be more fervent, and therefore more willing to venture into a blizzard to cast their vote.
And speaking of civic elections, that's the other big event for this year - this October's vote to select the next city council.
There should be a good turnout for this vote considering how much the current city council has polarized the city. Both sides have their supporters, as witnessed by the last vote.
In the last two years, the distaste for either the Brian Swanson/Dawn Luhning tandem or the other five has grown stronger. However, it appears there hasn't been a lot of swing of people becoming disenchanted with the people they supported. Instead, it has really just been a galvanization of that distaste.
This lack of movement of support will likely mean there won't be much change in council, especially of the top vote getters from the 2006 election.
The mayor's chair, however, could be a different story. This past year was not a good one healthwise for Mayor Dale McBain. The heart surgery that was complicated by a stroke took a visible toll on the mayor. He may choose to make another run at it but it seems just as possible that he will leave it at one term.
And that brings the question of who will run for mayor. It will be several months before we know who will chase after the big chair. It could be an existing councillor or it could be somebody from outside the municipal political realm. There is an former 21-year MLA who might fit in the position.
Speaking of MLAs, there is another local politician who may make an interesting splash early this year. There is the possibility that Moose Jaw Wakamow MLA Deb Higgins could jump into the race for the leadership of the NDP. It's hard to say what her chances are but it would give a local flavour to what has so far been a pretty bland race.
So here's to 2009 and the possibilities on the political horizon.