NDP experiencing peaks and valleys across Canada

There's an interesting political contrast going on between two provinces.
The first province is Saskatchewan where the NDP has ruled for 47 of the past 65 years (including its predecessor, the CCF).
Despite that history, the NDP is currently sitting in opposition, about to pick a new leader and could be out of power for at least six years if the next election follows historical precedence (new Saskatchewan governments almost always get a second term).
On top of that, the party has often held several federal seats in Saskatchewan throughout history. But since 2004, there hasn't been a single New Democrat MP from this province.
The contrast is Nova Scotia. While the NDP in Saskatchewan, the home of Canada's first-ever CCF government, is not faring so well, the party in the Bluenose province could make history early next month.
On June 9, Nova Scotia voters head to the polls, and according to survey results and other indicators, there is a possibility the NDP may win the election. This would be the first NDP government ever in Atlantic Canada.
As well, the NDP has only ever won an election east of Manitoba on one occasion, in Ontario in 1990. And after that experience, Ontarians have sworn off NDP rule like it was lunch meat laced with e. coli.
In the other Atlantic provinces, the NDP has never been anything more than a rump party. The most seats it has won in New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador is two, double its highest total in Prince Edward Island. Currently, there is only one elected provincial NDP member in Atlantic Canada outside of Nova Scotia and that's in Newfoundland and Labrador.
What makes the potential success even more fascinating is that it comes with no growth in the surrounding provinces. Four of the five Western Canadian New Democrat Parties have been in power - Saskatchewan, Manitoba, B.C. and Yukon. The only exception is Alberta (like you couldn't have guessed that).
Now, there are no guarantees the NDP will pull off this miracle in Nova Scotia. However, I did a very unscientific look at the province's 52 ridings to get a feel for how it might all shake out on June 9.
Currently, there are 23 Progressive Conservatives, 20 New Democrats and nine Liberals in the Nova Scotia Legislative Assembly.
Based on the one poll I could find early in the campaign, I looked at each riding's result from the 2006 election and tweaked them based on each party's swing according to that one poll. The poll indicated the NDP is up 2.4 per cent from 2006's election to 37 per cent. The Liberal party is up 7.6 per cent to 31 per cent and second place. The ruling Tories are down 11.6 per cent to 28 per cent.
Using those figures, I calculated the NDP could walk away with a narrow minority with 26 seats to 13 for both the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives.
However, this is a very unscientific method. With some incumbent MLAs not running and the possibility voters' feelings may change since that polling, the election could go very differently.
Before New Democrats start crowning Darrell Dexter the next premier however, the party needs to remember the provincial election a decade ago.
Prior to 1998, the NDP had never won more than four seats. But that changed in 1998 thanks to new leader Robert Chisholm, as the party vaulted into a 19-19 tie with the governing Liberal party, which remained in power because it was the incumbent.
In 1999, the government was toppled and another election was held. Many people thought the NDP would win that time. But Nova Scotia voters rethought the idea of trying out something new and put in a Progressive Conservative majority instead.
This fear of the unknown may lead Nova Scotians to turn to the devil they know again this time.
But no matter what happens, it is intriguing to watch this party succeed elsewhere in the country when it's not doing so well here.

Jason Small can be reached at 691-1255.