Stalled election call helps all parties

Well, it looks like some of the political players in Ottawa have saved themselves by backing away, at least for now, from the abyss that is another federal election.     With both the Bloc Quebecois and the NDP indicating they will prop up the Conservatives at least through this week, a nation has been spared an election it neither wants nor needs.     It’s  obvious that after one year, an election is not necessary. But it is also apparent that, barring a massive voting shift, we would be left with virtually the same situation we have now, with just a few chairs rearranged.     This avalanche of election speculation was launched by the recent sabre rattling of new Liberal boss Michael Ignatieff, who seems to be just itching to lead a campaign, even with only a flimsy premise to justify it.     While the Liberals will likely deride the Bloc and NDP for saving Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s prime ministerial parking space, those two parties also helped Ignatieff save a little face, as well.     Based on recent polling, and a look at the election results from one year ago, there just isn’t enough growth room for Ignatieff to win even a minority government, barring a sudden massive shift from what the polls are telling us.     There has been a small shift in polls recently, however, since Ignatieff started rattling his sword. That shift has been away from Ignatieff and the Grits.     In a total of 52 polls from various firms taken from the beginning of the year, shortly after Ignatieff took over as Liberal boss, until the end of August, when the Grits ramped up the election talk, the Liberals showed some improvement over 2008 election results.     In those 52 polls, the Grits averaged 32.73 per cent of decided voters, up from the 26.2 per cent it received in last year’s election. In those same polls, the Tories averaged 33.21 per cent, down from the 37.6 per centthe governing party received in the election.     However, this almost 11 per cent swing in voting percentage would still not be enough for the Liberals to win an election.     Applying the same percentage increases and decreases for each party to all 308 ridings across Canada, the final result would look like this: Conservatives — 124 seats; Liberals — 109 seats; Bloc Quebecois — 44 seats; NDP — 32 seats; and one independent.     Yes, this would give the Liberals more control in the house, but it’s still a Tory minority that would require the support of only one party to be propped up. So, even if Ignatieff could return his party to the support levels it had over the first few months of 2009, he would still finish a mile away from a victory and put us right back where we are now.     This would be a colossal waste of money, time and most of the goodwill Ignatieff has gathered up since taking over from Stephane Dion. So, despite his interest in an election, the Bloc and NDP’s decision to prop up the prime minister is good news for the Liberal boss.     It’s even better news when you consider that since the beginning of September, with the Liberals threatening to bring down the government, the Liberal fortunes have taken a dive while the Tory numbers have rebounded.     In seven polls, taken by six different firms, since Sept. 1, the Tories have averaged 34.8 per cent, while the Liberal support has fallen to an average of 31.66 per cent.     Applying these percentages to the 2008 election results, the final result would look like this: Conservatives — 131 seats; Liberals — 102 seats; Bloc Quebecois — 44 seats; NDP — 32 seats; and one independent. That’s even worse for the Liberals.     Not only does a prevention of an unnecessary election help the Liberals, it also aides the NDP and the Bloc. According to both sets of figures mentioned above, the NDP and BQ would each lose five seats in an election.     Therefore, while the Tories seemed to have been saved by the decision to not topple the government, the opposition parties have received just as much of a reprieve. Jason Small can be reached at 691-1255.