So Canadians are going to the polls again this fall, after all.
OK, before the panic sets in, no, you did not miss a sudden, successful non-confidence motion.
With it becoming obvious the Conservative government will not be toppled this fall, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has recently called byelections to fill the four current vacancies in Parliament to bring the total number of MPs back up to 308.
Byelections are fascinating for a variety of reasons. There is no national campaign influencing voters. As well, the voter turnout is roughly half of a general election, which can lead to abnormal results.
On top of that, people don’t think of strategic voting because, except in rare cases, a byelection doesn’t decide who is in power. Voters also, sometimes, use a byelection as a protest vote of the government, supporting a party they wouldn’t vote for during a general election.
All of this can lead to some intriguing results.
Going into this vote, there are a few stories to watch.
The four ridings up for grabs are in three different provinces — B.C., Nova Scotia and Quebec. Prior to the vacancies, two were held by the Bloc Quebecois, the one in B.C. was held by the NDP and the Nova Scotia seat was held by an independent MP who used to be Conservative.
Going into this, the Conservatives have been trying to downplay expectations claiming the party may not win any of the four seats up for grabs. However, based on the track records of these ridings, a shutout of the Tories on Nov. 9 would be nothing short of an embarrassment.
Some pundits are arguing the NDP has a strong chance at taking away the Nova Scotia seat of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, considering the party finished second in 2008.
These pundits are also suggesting the surge of the provincial NDP, which won a majority government in June, will also help push the NDP to possibly winning this riding.
I don’t buy it for a second. Even though Bill Casey, a longtime Conservative won this seat by a landslide as an independent in 2008, it’s still fertile Tory ground. Except for the 1993 election, when all but two Tories won seats, this region has gone Conservative consistently since 1953. Part of this riding used to be held by former Tory prime minister Charles Tupper, so this area has a long Tory heritage.
On top of that, the NDP has never polled more than 9,000 votes. Even when it finished second last year, the party still only scored 4,874 to Casey’s 27,303.
Since 39,000 voted in the riding last year, expect about 20,000 to vote this time around. At lot more than 4,800 would be needed to win even then. So don’t expect this to go anywhere but Conservative.
The two Quebec ridings Montmagny — L’Islet-Kamouraska — Riviere-du-Loup and Hochelaga have been solidly Bloc Quebecois since the party’s formation. While the Conservatives did well in Montmagny in 2008, it was still 15 per cent behind the Bloc and that will probably be too much to overcome. Look for Bloc holds here.
The final riding is New Westminster-Coquitlam in B.C. The NDP expects to hold this riding that was won twice by Dawn Black, who has now moved into provincial politics.
However, this riding should not be a slam dunk for the NDP. If the Tories’ strong numbers hold, and the party can get a lot of that support out, there’s a good chance the Tories could take two seats on this night. Last year Black won this seat by less than 1,500 votes. That’s not much.
As well, this is an area that has voted Reform, Canadian Alliance and Conservative more than it’s voted for the NDP. So this is one seat the Tories have a good shot at taking back.
If the Conservatives win two seats on Nov. 9 it would be a good sign for the Tories although it shouldn’t be taken as a ringing endorsement since both areas have a strong conservative history.
Jason Small can be reached at 691-1266.
