Since Saskatchewanians will be heading back to the polls exactly two years from Saturday, we’ve arrived at the halfway mark in the Saskatchewan Party’s first term in power.
With that in mind, I thought I’d take a quick look at what we might expect in two years time when the voters of this province go back to the polls.
As things stand now, if nothing else changes over the next two years, there doesn’t seem to be much of a reason why the Saskatchewan Party would fail to score another majority.
In the past two years, there has been little in the way of scandal that has seemed to stick to this government. Also, the economy has done decently — although it hasn’t been perfect (just ask different workers in this area) — so that doesn’t hurt. But even if things were to get worse, there would have to be some colossal screw-ups by the government to get people to vote against the Sask. Party en masse.
In fact, only once in the province’s history has a first-term government not been re-elected when it sought a second term and even then, it didn’t actually win the first term.
In 1929, the Liberals went from a majority government to a minority win with 29 of the 63 seats. The Conservatives finished second with 28 seats.
The Liberals were quickly defeated in a vote of non-confidence and the Conservatives, along with the support of the Progressives and some independents won a vote of confidence and took power for five years.
However, the Depression did a number on a lot of governments, including the Saskatchewan Conservative government, which was wiped out in the 1934 election, as the Liberals regained a majority and the Tories were left with no seats.
Other than that, first-term governments always win re-election in this province. On the flip side, that win usually comes with a reduced majority. But considering the Sask. Party has a nine-seat majority, it can stand to lose a few seats and still maintain a comfortable hold on power.
In most jurisdictions in Canada, it takes a lot for a government to fail to score a second mandate. It has happened, but often it requires a truly vilified government to fail in that second attempt.
I lived through just such a government in Ontario in the early-1990s. That government, which was reviled for its handling of the recession, was so thoroughly rejected in its bid for re-election that the party (the NDP) has been wandering the electoral wilderness with just a handful of seats ever since.
Besides the need for a couple of major problems to defeat a new government, a strong third party also helps by siphoning off enough votes from the government to allow the official Opposition to win without a majority of seats.
That just isn’t here in this province. The Liberal party hasn’t won a seat since 1999 and it has a new leader — Ryan Bater — who most people don’t know.
The Green Party of Saskatchewan — led by Moose Javian and failed city council candidate Larissa Shasko — is even further away from being competitive than the Liberals.
So, without anything earth-shattering happening in the next two years, we’re probably going to have a very similar set up in the legislature after we head to the polls in two years.
Jason Small can be reached at 691-1255.
