While the Tories tried desperately to spin Monday’s byelections into a referendum of Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, byelections are reflective of public opinion towards the government not the Opposition and Monday was no different.
That being said, there was little for the Conservatives to worry about in Monday’s assessment.
For the third straight set of byelections, the Conservatives gained at least one seat it did not have prior to the vacancy.
In 2007, the Tories gained the Bloc-held seat of Roberval-Lac St. Jean in Quebec. In 2008, prior to the general election, the Tories won the northern Saskatchewan seat of Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River in a byelection from the Liberal party, which had narrowly stolen it from the Tories in 2006.
And now, in 2009, the Conservatives have added two ridings it did not have before they were vacated, although one was a Conservative seat on loan to the independents’ column.
The Nova Scotia seat of Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley was easily returned to the Tory fold on Monday with Scott Armstrong winning the byelection with 45.8 per cent of the vote. The runner-up from the NDP received 20.1 per cent.
In 2008, this seat was won by incumbent independent MP Bill Casey, who held on to the seat. Casey left federal politics earlier this year to represent the Nova Scotia government as a liaison in Ottawa.
Before becoming an independent, Casey had held this seat for many years first as a Progressive Conservative and then as a Conservative. He was tossed out of the Tory caucus for voting against the government because of its handling of natural resource revenues and equalization payments as they affected Nova Scotia.
So, while this is officially a new seat for the Tories, this was a must-win, so this victory should not be viewed as a positive change for the government even though it will try to spin it that way.
However, the result that should have made Prime Minister Stephen Harper dance through the streets was in rural Quebec.
In the riding of Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière-du-Loup (yes, it’s one of the longest names of the 308 ridings) the Bloc Quebecois was supposed to hold onto a riding it has had since 1993 (and by Paul Crete in all that time).
In the 2008 general election, Crete held the seat with 46.03 per cent of the vote and the Tories followed with 30.63 per cent.
On Monday, Conservative candidate Bernard Genereux won with 42.7 per cent of the vote, over Nancy Gagnon of the Bloc, who scored 37.7 per cent.
While this is great news for the Tories, it’s even better when you think that in the 2008 general election it held the two seats the Tories won in byelections in 2007 and 2008. So, it’s quite possible it will hold Montmagny et al. in the next general election.
The win is a good sign because it shows the Conservatives are growing in Quebec and are moving slowly closer to a majority.
Now, Monday’s results were not all sunshine and lollipops for the Conservatives. The Tories had a very good shot at winning the B.C. seat of New Westminster-Coquitlam. It held the riding from 2003 to 2006 and before then it was held by the Canadian Alliance and the Reform Party.
It was won in 2006 by a well-known New Democrat, Dawn Black, who was re-elected in 2008. Both times, Black did not win by a huge margin. In 2008, she won by three per cent with 41.8 per cent. In 2006, she had 38.3 per cent and won by less than five per cent. In both cases, the Conservatives finished second.
However, on Monday, NDP candidate Fin Donnelly won the seat with 49.6 per cent of the vote to 35.8 per cent by the Tory candidate Diana Dilworth. This was a bit of a blow for the Tories.
While the loss in B.C. definitely means there are areas of concern for the Tories, Harper must be buoyed by Monday’s result as it draws him closer to his precious majority.
Jason Small can be reached at 691-1255.
