I think it’s about time to dive into the polling freefall that has hit Prime Minister Stephen Harper so hard it’s probably jostled some of the previously immovable hairs on his head.
A couple of months ago it seemed unfathomable to think that Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals would even be considered to be in the same league as the Conservatives, with Harper getting a substantial lead thanks to a series of Liberal blunders.
Now, it’s been Harper’s turn to play “No, I don’t want it, you take it” with the support of Canadians. This nosedive is largely due to a parliamentary manoeuvre with which most Canadians used to be unfamiliar — prorogation.
I remember a couple years ago someone asked me what that word was when they came across prorogue. Now, after Harper’s prorogation in December 2008 to prevent a takeover by a coalition government and this latest manoeuvre, most Canadians are familiar with it. Besides knowing what prorogation is, a good chunk of Canadians (enough to hurt the Tories) are ticked about it happening this time.
Nationwide, the poll pits the Tories and the Liberals in a dead heat at 32 per cent. The NDP is next at 15 per cent, followed by the Bloc at 10 per cent and the Green party at nine per cent.
When you break it down by region, you start to see that the scales may have tipped slightly towards the Grits.
In Ontario, the Liberals are polling at 40 per cent, up more than six per cent from the 2008 election. On the flip side, the Conservatives are at 35 per cent in Ontario, down from 39.2 per cent in the election.
This could be enough to flip several seats to the Liberals from the Tories and the NDP, which was at 14 per cent in Ontario, down from 18.2 per cent in the election.
On top of that, a jump in the Quebec polls for the Liberals up to 28 per cent, puts some distance between the Grits and Tories. The Conservatives have 13 per cent in Quebec with the Bloc Quebecois on top at 38 per cent, NDP at 11 per cent and the Greens with eight per cent.
Compared with the 2008 election, the Bloc’s support has not changed but the Liberals are up 4.2 per cent while the Tories are down 7.7 per cent. This switch gives the Liberals a shot at several more seats in Quebec that could help bring the two parties level.
With this poll there is virtually no change in Saskatchewan compared to the election. The poll states the Conservatives are tops at 49 per cent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (yes, we’re lumped in with Manitoba, instead of being on our own). The NDP is still second at 24 per cent, the Liberals are next with 18 per cent and the Green party has eight per cent.
In Alberta, the Liberals support has almost doubled compared to the last election — up to 22 per cent from 11.4 per cent. Meanwhile, the Tories drop to 54 per cent in the poll from 64.7 in the election. The NDP is down slightly to 10 per cent. But what’s worse for the NDP, the only party other than the Conservatives that has an Alberta MP, is that it has not fallen behind the Green party, which has leapfrogged into third with 12 per cent, up from 8.8 per cent.
Besides Ontario, the other province that is up the most for the Liberals is B.C., where the party has jumped from 19.3 per cent in the election to a statistical dead heat with the Conservatives now at 30 per cent. The Tories sit at 32 per cent, which is within the margin of error of the Liberals.
The NDP, which had the second-most votes in the election in B.C. at 26.1 per cent is only down 2.1 per cent. Almost all of the Liberal gains have come from the Conservative party, which has seen its numbers plummet 12.5 per cent from 44.5 per cent.
In Atlantic Canada, the numbers are virtually unchanged from the election.
So, with the Liberals strong in two of the most-seat rich provinces, a minority win for the Grits is possible if these polling results hold.
What’s interesting is looking at who has benefited from the irritation of voters over the prorogation. The NDP has also loudly protested the prorogation but it has lost ground nationwide while the Liberals have reaped the rewards of the Tory bungling.
This shows that even though we have multiple parties and a minority government Canada is realistically a two-party system and most people believe they really have one of two choices. Many people hated the Liberals two months ago but now that they dislike the Tories more, they’ve simply jumped back to the Grits instead of going to one of the smaller parties.
Now, the next question is whether this bump will hold for the Liberals and whether the party will try to take advantage of this increase in popularity by forcing a spring election once Parliament resumes in March. After trying to force an election backfired last fall for the Liberals, precipitating that party’s fall from polling grace, don’t be surprised if it holds off on pushing for an election.
Jason Small can be reached at 691-1255.
