The Olympics will be getting underway Friday and, as usual, I’m revved up to see how Canada does in the competition.
Since Sarajevo in 1984, I have watched and savoured every Olympic Games, winter and summer.
As a Canadian, I have also long since come to grips with the fact that while we’ll win some medals we usually can’t compete with the big dogs — those larger countries with more money such as U.S., Germany, China and Russia.
The last time Canada hosted the Olympics in Calgary in 1988 it won five medals — two in alpine skiing and three in figure skating — none of which were gold.
But thanks to the addition of sports Canada tends to excel in — curling, women’s hockey, short track speedskating, freestyle skiing and snowboarding — coupled with advances in some of the longstanding sports, Canada has seen its medal total blossom at the last few Winter Olympics.
In Lillehammer, Norway in 1994, we reached double digits for the first time ever with 13 medals. It jumped to 15 four years later in Nagano, Japan and up another two to 17 in 2002 in Salt Lake City.
However, it was four years ago in Torino, Italy that we saw that total bloom to a grand total of 24 with seven gold, 10 silver and seven bronze medals.
But now the Olympics have returned to Canada and instead of hoping for just one medal Canadians have a goal of winning the most medals total at these games.
And based on how our athletes have been doing the last couple years, this is not an unreasonable expectation.
Looking how our athletes have been faring recently in international competition, I have concluded that if the stars align and everything goes exactly Canada’s way, with every individual and team that has a chance medalling in Vancouver we could walk away with a maximum of 62 medals.
That total is unheard of at the Winter Olympics, where there only is 282 medals to be won.
And, quite frankly, we won’t win 62 medals. There are some real longshots in there.
If everything goes poorly, I think our worst case scenario would see us win 16 medals, which is respectable.
However, after crunching the numbers and being realistic, I predict Canada will win 33 medals at these Winter Games with 13 gold, nine silver and 12 bronze.
Germany won the most in 2006 with 29 medals. Germany has also won the most ever in a single Winter Olympics with 36 in 2002.
Now, maybe I’m being a little optimistic here, but Sports Illustrated put out its traditional prediction of medals for Games and has predicted Canada will finish second with 30 behind only Germany, which it predicted will win 35.
So, here is my prediction of the 35 medals I think we’ll win over the next two weeks. This is just my prediction and I know I’m not going to be perfect.
Gold: Maelle Ricker, women’s snowboardcross; Jasey Jay Anderson, men’s parallel giant slalom, snowboarding; Kaillie Humphries/Heather Moyse, two-women bobsled; Mellisa Hollingsworth, women’s skeleton; Patrick Chan, men’s figure skating; Christine Nesbitt (2), women’s 1,000 metres and 1,500 metres, long track speedskating; women’s team pursuit, long track speedskating; men’s team pursuit, long track speedskating; Charles Hamelin, men’s 500 metres, short track speedskating; Jennifer Heil, women’s moguls, freestyle skiing; Kevin Martin’s rink, men’s curling; and Team Canada, women’s hockey.
Silver: Men’s hockey (sorry folks, it’s just a hunch); Jon Montgomery, men’s skeleton; Joanie Rochette, women’s figure skating; Tessa Virtue and Scott Moir, ice dance, figure skating; Michael Lambert, parallel giant slalom, snowboarding; Kristina Groves, women’s 1,500 metres, long track speedskating; men’s 5,000 metre relay, short track speedskating; Christopher Delbosco, men’s ski cross, freestyle skiing; and Ashleigh McIvor, men’s ski cross, freestyle skiing.
Bronze: Cheryl Bernard and rink, women’s curling; Manuel Osborne-Paradis, men’s downhill, alpine skiing; Dominque Maltais, women’s snowboardcross; Kristina Groves, women’s 3,000 metres, long track speedskating; Denny Morrison, men’s 1,500 metres, long track speedskating; Charles Hamelin (2), men’s 1,000 metres and men’s 1,500 metres, short track speedskating; Kalyna Roberge, women’s 500 metres, short track speedskating; women’s 3,000 metre relay, short track speedskating; Alexandre Bilodeau, men’s moguls, freestyle skiing; Kelsey Serwa, women’s ski cross, freestyle skiing.
We’ll see what happens as this nation watches excitedly for the next 17 days, but hopefully many of these Canadian athletes can succeed and get at least close to my predicted total.
Jason Small can be reached at 691-1255.
