By the time some of you are reading this, the result might be much clearer but as I write I am very much looking forward to today’s results in the United Kingdom election.
Every time the Brits have gone to the polls over the past 13 years I have taken a keen interest in the election and especially in its results.
What’s fun about British elections is the fact that besides the two major parties — Labour and Conservative — eight others won seats in the 2005 election. Of those, only one — Liberal-Democrat, which won 62 seats — is a nationwide party.
The rest are regional parties that won between one and nine seats in 2005. Of the three smaller nationalities that make up the U.K. along with England, all three have at least one regional party that has won a seat.
In Scotland, the Scottish Nationalist Party won six seats. In Wales, the Plaid Cymru (which means Wales in Welsh) won three seats. And in Northern Ireland, none of the nationwide parties won a seat, all 18 seats were won by regional parties.
Picture the BQ but slightly less successful and in more than one part of the country and you have an idea of the regionalism in the U.K.
While the variety of parties helped make those elections fun to watch in the past, there’s an added aspect that is making the 2010 election even more thrilling.
It’s possible that on Friday morning, Brits may wake up to find themselves in the same political situation Canada has been in since 2004 — a minority government, or as the Brits call it, “a hung Parliament.”
Now, while we’ve gotten a bit used to the hung Parliaments over the last six years, the U.K. has not experienced one since 1974.
A hung Parliament is being predicted because of a massive shift in support, according to polls, to the third party Liberal-Democrats.
The Lib-Dems, as they are referred to, are now being seen as a viable alternative compared to the two traditional parties.
An average of the most recent polls, according to ukpollingreport.co.uk is that 27 per cent support the Lib-Dems compared to 28 for the reigning Labour party, led by Prime Minister Gordon Brown and David Cameron’s Conservative party, which is tops at 35 per cent.
That will most likely lead to a minority. And in the past, I have made no secret of the fact I like minorities, in most cases, because a lot can get accomplished when everyone has to work together.
Now, I am curbing my excitement. As my colleague who is actually voting in this election, Rebecca Lawrence, pointed out, the little boy better known as the British media has cried hung Parliament before and it has not happened.
In 1992, the polls were showing the Labour and Conservatives were neck-and-neck and it was believed that closeness, with the other parties having a shot at enough seats to result in a minority.
In fact, as polls closed in the United Kingdom in 1992, the BBC announced the results of its exit polls, which showed the Conservatives were going to win but be short of a majority by 10 to 25 seats.
Wrong.
To the shock of many, especially the pollsters, the reigning Conservative party, led by relatively new prime minister John Major, took home 7.5 per cent more of the vote than the runner-up Labour party. As well, the Tories scored 336 seats to Labour’s 271, giving Major a majority of 26 seats.
So, all of this must give pause to pundits. One of the two major parties may have enough to win an outright majority, which would be a real surprise.
However, since the Liberal-Democrats are looking stronger than the party had in 1992, there’s a much better chance for a minority.
Now, it’s just a matter of waiting and watching what could turn out to be an exciting result in one of the most interesting British elections in almost 20 years. With three sort-of-strong parties, there’s a chance the next British Parliament could very well be hung.
Jason Small can be reached at 691-1255.
