Choosing dance partners

Sometimes, midway through a dance, you just have to change partners.
It looks like that scenario may take place in Ottawa in the next few weeks as Parliament gets ready to resume.
For several months, Prime Minister Stephen Harper has been keeping his tenuous minority government in one piece because of his dance partner, albeit a slightly stand-offish partner, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.
But, after months of false starts, Ignatieff appears finally ready to leave Harper all alone on the dance floor.
"Mr. Harper, your time is up," Ignatieff told a throng of supporters on Tuesday, much to the delirious delight of the cheering Liberals gathered in Sudbury, Ont.
"At the first opportunity, we will move a motion of non-confidence in this government."
But, without so much as an "excuse me, may I have this dance," NDP Deputy Leader Thomas Mulcair immediately stepped in to the breach shortly after Ignatieff's comments.
Mulcair said if the government is willing to "work in the public interest" then the NDP may be interested in supporting the Tory government. He said the NDP would handle it on a case-by-case basis.
"What I'm saying is: the last thing Canadians want is a fourth general election in five years and we'd better have a bloody good reason for forcing a fourth general election in five years," said Mulcair.
However, the NDP's lone Quebec MP went on to say that if the government continues to be provocative, particularly on women's rights and the environment, "then we'll throw him out of office because he'll have provoked it."
But the tone change from the NDP is there: work together with us on some issues and we won't knock you down, for now.
This is a switch even from last week when NDP Leader Jack Layton had met with Harper.
"I didn't see any change in direction on the part of the government in my conversation with Mr. Harper," Layton said after the meeting on Friday.
The NDP boss then added: "the NDP would be the least likely of the political parties to support the Conservatives in office because we have very fundamental differences with the direction that they're taking the country."
And yet, despite these tough words of just a few days earlier, here's Mulcair, clearly playing the role of good cop to Layton's bad cop, stating that there could be a chance the NDP would continue to prop up the Tories.
There are a few reasons for this change in tone. First, people could be extremely upset about having to go to the polls for the fourth time in five years and the parties could fear the backlash.
When a government is defeated, it usually loses to the official Opposition. This trend could also concern the NDP because this would likely mean losing votes to the Liberals.
Finally, the NDP currently has the most seats it has had in close to two decades, with 36. Any surge the Liberals would have in the next election, which is expected since the Liberal party is up in the polls, would come, at least in part, at the NDP's expense.
So, it may be prudent for the NDP to try to maintain the status quo for a little while.
However, the party also has to fear the potential backlash of propping up the Tories. Layton could lose some core support to the Greens or even the Liberals because NDP support of the Conservatives may be seen as treason to some left-wingers.
And Harper could also feel some backlash for teaming up with the left-wing New Democrats.
All of these parties have to carefully consider who their dance partner is going to be, because it may do themselves more harm than good.

Jason Small can be reached at 691-1255.